Possible Political Scenarios going forward – what do you think?




As our President survives yet another ‘No Confidence’ vote it becomes increasingly apparent that the succession strategy is the game plan, that Zuma and his acolytes (a more polite word than ‘cronies’) are intent on ensuring that Dlamini-Zuma becomes the next President of the ANC – this year 2017- so that in 2019 the current system of patronage, state capture, and illicit enrichment will be secure for the next 10 years.

Whether or not this actually transpires is another question.

It may well be that the alliance splits with COSATU/SACP backing Ramaphosa; that the ANC ‘elders’ support this and that the next President of the ANC – this year 2017 – is NOT Dlamini-Zuma.

Scenario pondering has become the ‘fix’ of dinner party talk.

Below is one such ‘pondering’ by Derek Carstens, formerly of FNB and much involved with positioning SA for the 2010 World Cup, now Karoo farmer at large – this intro by Steuart Pennington.

Derek argues, “Now that a credible anti – Zuma (Dlamini alias Jacob) slate is emerging from the current political mire, it begs the questions:

  • What are the possible scenarios?
  • What does the losing slate do post the 2017 Conference?
  • What does the winner do?
  • What is in the best interests of the country?

I believe that the current existentialist crisis the country is facing can only be resolved by the ANC.

We can huff and puff as much as we like, but we will not blow the ANC house down.

At best I think that our marches, besides giving the likes of Mmusi, Bantu et al the courage and strength to fight the good fight, also send a strong signal to the Cyril brigade that we are there for them as well. That the problem is real, substantive and they too should draw succor from it as they gird their loins to tackle the dragon in his Gupta hijacked ANC lair. I think that they have served as a catalyst for the recent emergence of the Ramaphosa/Sisulu/Mkhize/Mantashe/Mashatile/Makhura slate and let’s not forget Jonas – a star turn to be sure for whom a bright future surely beckons.
Winners and Losers

But like any contest of this nature there will be a winner and loser – by penalty shoot out if necessary. But a draw there will not be.
So where to then for the winner, the loser, the country?

Seems a number of scenarios emerge:

Scenario One:

Team Cyril lose in Dec 2017. What do they do and what does Team Zupta do?
Do they – Team Cyril – dumb themselves down and stay in the now not so warm climes of Luthuli House? Face demotion, relegation to the footnotes of history?
Or – do they break ranks, fulfill the early promise of Cope and set out their stall anew for 2019. In so doing present a compelling Centrist option for those who cannot cross the DA Rubicon, and also weaken the ANC and lessen the prospects of an intact (but wounded) ANC joining forces with the EFF come 2019. A prospect, too ghastly to contemplate (and this time it truly is), of a possible 66 2/3rds majority threat to our Constitution, with Julius in the drivers seat come 2024.
And make no mistake this is a stark reality. Let there be no doubt that once Zuma formally departs from the scene, the political Left of the ANC and EFF will merge, leaving Julius as the King Maker. The only question is will it be a 45-50% ANC, if Team Cyril stay in, or a 35-45 % ANC if they leave?
In this scenario by far the best option for both the losing protagonists and the country would be a Ramaphosa led breakaway.

The 2019 prospect may then play out as follows:
ANC/EFF COALITION – 40% / 14% = 54%
DA – 26 %
Team Cyril – 20%

At least a start – effectively a 46% Opposition vote and no chance of the Constitution being attacked by an ANC/ EFF Coalition, be it as a merged or dual entity. By 2024 the populist coalition could drop below 50% depending on how the DA and Team Cyril perform in their constituencies. Game on as support for the latter two grows from beyond just the Big Five Metros and into the primary urban and semi rural towns.

In summary the defeated Team Cyril stays in, the ANC loses some support from disillusioned “clever Blacks” (to quote Zuma) and merges with EFF.

Bad – even though the DA may grow in this scenario.
Or Cyril’s group exit, start on their own leaving the leftist ANC to merge with the EFF so they together stay above the magical 50% mark, but not a threat to the Constitution.

Promising…by no means a future slam dunk…but at least a start.

Scenario Two:

Team Cyril win!
Then, what do they do and what does the ex-Zuma and Julius team do?

In this scenario the challenge will be for winners to hold their line, at the expense of the numerically relevant populists many of whom will doubtless migrate to a home in the EFF.

The challenge here will be to retain more than 50% of the votes. In all likelihood this may be a bridge too far so early in the piece. However 40 – 45 % would do as the DA would clearly emerge as a progressive coalition ally, ensuring above 50% when needed on the major issues. Whilst the EFF/ex-Zuma squad may garner up to say 26%, or more, they would effectively be marginalized from the mainstream.

In my view this would probably be the best outcome. The ANC restores its gravitas and some of its brave historical promise, without sacrificing its honorable past on the failed altar of populist opportunism. The DA emerges as the key ally, surely a better alternative than the wily Julius and his street – wise, politically savvy entourage.
No matter the scenario however, what is clear is that it is in the best interests of the country’s future that the Ramaphosa slate win.

Then it really is Game On for Team RSA as we seek to shake off our junk status and reclaim our rightful place in Africa and the World. Failing this they must at least do well and put up more than just a good showing to provide a base on which to build for 2019 and 2024.

The final question

Which brings us then to final question – what do you do as an individual voter between now and 2017 and then leading up to 2019?

Doing nothing is not an option – especially if you call SA home.

So if you are a registered ANC member, support Team Cyril at your local branch level when time comes to vote before the Conference. If you are an ANC supporter, but not registered, then pay your dues, join a branch and vote.

What however if you are neither of these and not a paid up member of say the DA or the UDM. Should you join the ANC, join a branch and vote in support of Cyril’s team prior to the Conference?
For me, this is the critical question.

Normally I believe in the old adage that a principle is not a principle till it costs you something. However increasingly I find myself believing that abiding by dormant principles may just cost me and you the country. So…up to me and over to you…and in the meantime do not forget to march.

Those who take on the Zuma led government need all the support they can get.”

It is said that a week is a long time in politics, in SA it is a couple of days!