Some Unexpected Good News?

Enjoyed a productive Thursday listening to presentations from some of the very best investment researchers on earth. Every year Europe’s largest money manager Schroders provides an update on global investment markets to 120 journos brought to London from all over the world. This time I got the nod. As did South Africa, for which there was some unexpectedly good news.

It came from Schroders Emerging Markets Debt head Abdallah Guezour who specifically included SA on a list of countries whose bonds he’s buying because “their politicians are becoming more disciplined” by introducing necessary economic reforms. Indonesia, India, Argentina and Brazil top the list, but he belatedly added SA because “the leadership of Zuma is coming to an end” so he reckons it’s an opportune time to invest in the country’s debt instruments.

Guezour followed this by saying 2014’s Fragile Five (Turkey, Brazil, India, Indonesia and SA) are now down to a Fragile One – Turkey. So SA has escaped that infamous list. I asked the group’s chief economist Keith Wade about the buoyant view. Turns out Schroders’ base case – apparently one shared widely in London – is the plundering Zuptas will be shown the door at the ANC’s elective conference next month.

After getting Brexit and the US presidential election wrong, here’s hoping London’s big money managers are on the right horse this time.

Alec Hogg